新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2023,Issue (2): 71-80.doi: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2023.02.007

• 丝路研究 • 上一篇    

经济制裁对俄罗斯通货膨胀的影响研究

孙攀峰1, 刘岚萍2   

  1. 1.新疆财经大学，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
    2.中国农业银行乌鲁木齐分行，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830092
  • 收稿日期:2022-08-12 出版日期:2023-04-25 发布日期:2023-05-22
  • 作者简介:孙攀峰（1988—），男，经济学博士，新疆财经大学金融学院讲师，研究方向为经济制裁;
    刘岚萍（1989—），女，就职于中国农业银行乌鲁木齐分行，研究方向为公司金融。
  • 基金资助:
    新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金一般项目“新疆绿色金融助推产业结构升级的路径及政策研究”(21BJY045);新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金青年项目“基于饱和脉冲控制的复杂网络的同步分析及其在金融系统中的应用”(2022D01B13);新疆财经大学高层次人才专项项目“丝绸之路经济带国内沿线省份金融周期研究”(2022XGC010)

A Study of Influence of Economic Sanctions on Inflation in Russia

SUN Panfeng1, LIU Lanping2   

  1. 1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, China
    2. Urumqi Branch, Agricultural Bank of China, Urumqi 830092, China
  • Received:2022-08-12 Online:2023-04-25 Published:2023-05-22

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摘要：

随着全球化的不断深入，国与国之间的交流更加频繁和密切，相互之间的依赖程度不断提高，这使得某些国家利用经济制裁实现其国家利益成为可能。本文以俄罗斯消费者价格指数（CPI）为基础，研究经济制裁对俄罗斯通货膨胀的影响，并采用事件研究法中的常数均值模型、三因素模型和四因素模型分别对其影响效果进行测度。研究发现：在经济制裁实施前期，俄罗斯通货膨胀受到的不利影响逐渐增强，但随着时间的推移和俄罗斯反制裁的实施，这种不利影响增强到一定程度后开始慢慢减弱，后期完全消除，但经济制裁对俄罗斯经济的整体不利影响并没有完全消除。今后我国应加速构建国内国际双循环新发展格局，加大科技投入，优化国际贸易合作机制，加强舆论宣传，以更好地应对可能的经济制裁影响。

关键词: 经济制裁, 俄罗斯通货膨胀, 事件研究法

Abstract:

With the deepening of globalization, the exchanges between countries are more frequent and closer, and the degree of mutual dependence is increasing, which makes it possible for some countries to realize their national interests by using economic sanctions. Based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Russia, this paper studies the impact of economic sanctions on inflation in Russia, and uses the constant mean model, the three-factor model and the four-factor model in the event study method to measure the effect. The study found that in the early stage of the implementation of economic sanctions, the adverse impact on inflation in Russia gradually increased, but with the passage of time and the implementation of Russia’s counter-sanctions, this adverse impact increased to a certain extent and began to slowly weaken, and later completely offset, however, the overall adverse impact of economic sanctions on the Russian economy has not been completely eliminated. In the future, China should strengthen the publicity of public opinion, accelerate the construction of domestic and international double cycle of new development pattern, increase investment in science and technology and optimize the international trade cooperation mechanism so as to better cope with the possible economic sanctions impact.

Key words: economic sanctions, inflation in Russia, event research

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