新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2015,Issue (5): 5-13.

• 经济理论与实践 •    下一篇

当前GDP变化与税收变化的合理性研究——基于经济进入“新常态”下的数据

白彦锋, 乔路   

  1. 中央财经大学 财政学院,北京100081
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-02 出版日期:2015-10-25 发布日期:2020-12-14
  • 作者简介:白彦锋(1976-),男,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:财税理论与政策;乔路(1993－),女,硕士研究生,研究方向:财税理论与政策。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目“深化税收制度改革与完善地方税体系研究”(14ZDA028)

The Rationality Research of the Current GDP and Tax Changes——Based on the Data under “the New Normal” Economy

Bai Yanfeng, Qiao Lu   

  1. Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China
  • Received:2015-08-02 Online:2015-10-25 Published:2020-12-14

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摘要： 本文选取2012年—2014年GDP与税收收入及其增长率、税收占GDP的比重等指标来分析经济增长与税收收入之间相互作用、相互影响的关系,得出新常态下GDP与税收收入及其增长率变化的合理性及原因,并借助平稳性检验、协整检验、Granger因果关系检验、VAR模型脉冲响应分析等对其合理性进行了实证分析。但分析认为,GDP在新常态下作为经济衡量指标还不够全面,因此,基于合理性与经济下行压力,本文提出:一要培育新的经济增长动力;二要实施创新驱动发展战略;三要扩大内需;四要实施宽松的货币政策;五要财税体制改革与经济社会发展相适应;六要增加财政支出效率;七要注重区域协同发展;八要对经济稳中向好、企稳回升充满信心。

关键词: 经济增长, 税收收入, 合理性, VAR模型

Abstract: In this paper,through 2012—2014 GDP and tax revenue and its growth rate,tax revenue as a share of GDP,we analyze the interaction and the mutual influence relations between economic growth and tax revenue.It is concluded that the rationality and reasons of the GDP and tax revenue and its growth rate changes under“the new normal” economy.Next,we make an empirical analysis of the rationality of the GDP and tax revenue and its growth rate change that use stationary test, cointegration test,Granger causality test,VAR model,impulse response analysis. Finally,we think that GDP as indicators of economic is not comprehensive under “the new normal”economy,so based on the rationality and economy downward pressure,the following policy suggestions are given:First,foster new economic growth engine.Second,implement the development strategy of innovation drive.Third,expand domestic demand.Fourth,implement the loose monetary policy.Fifth,reform fiscal and taxation system and make it adapt to social and economic development.Sixth,increase the efficiency of fiscal expenditure.Seventh,attach importance to the coordinated development of regional.Eighth,be confident in economic stability.

Key words: Economic Growth, Tax Revenue, Rationality, the VAR Model

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