Abstract:

Taking the survey data of 1385 families in the most impoverished contiguous areas in southern Xinjiang as an example, the paper studies the impact of rural vocational skills training on the risk of returning to poverty by using PSM method. The findings show that, currently, the frequency of vocational skills training participation among farmers is relatively low, and their risk of returning to poverty is also at a lower level. While implementing rural vocational skills training can effectively reduce farmers' risk of falling back into poverty, it demonstrates diminishing marginal effects. Additionally, the poverty prevention process exhibits an anti-opportunity pursuit phenomenon. Furthermore, the preventive effect of rural vocational skills training on farmers' poverty recurrence risk shows significant multidimensional heterogeneity across different dimensions. At this stage, it is recommended to prioritize the cultivation of rural non-agricultural planting industries. Guided by the technical talent demands of these industries, more targeted vocational skills training should be implemented. This approach will not only effectively reduce farmers' risk of falling back into poverty but also vigorously promote rural revitalization. It facilitates the effective integration of consolidating and expanding poverty alleviation achievements with rural development strategies, ultimately establishing an endogenous mechanism for sustainable poverty eradication.

Key words: return to poverty, rural vocational skills training, anti-opportunity pursuit, heterogeneity

摘要：

文章基于新疆南疆集中连片特困地区1385个家庭的调查数据，采用PSM方法研究农村职业技能培训对农户返贫的阻断效应。研究发现：农户每年参加职业技能培训的次数较少，目前返贫风险处于较低的水平；开展农村职业技能培训可有效降低农户返贫风险，但存在边际效应递减现象，且阻断农户返贫的过程中还存在反机会追求现象，农村职业技能培训对农户返贫风险的阻断效应也存在明显的多维异质性。现阶段，建议重点培育乡村非农种植产业，并以非农种植产业对技术人才的需求为导向，开展更具针对性的职业技能培训，在有效降低农户返贫风险的同时大力推动乡村振兴，实现巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接，形成巩固脱贫成果的内生机制。

关键词: 返贫, 农村职业技能培训, 反机会追求, 异质性