Abstract: With“The Belt and Road”initiative, bilateral trade cooperation between China and central Asian countries has developed rapidly. However, the development of the Central Asian countries is not balanced in the national economic development, the dependence on foreign trade is high, the domestic industry is not balanced, and the economic development is heavily dependent on the status quo of mineral energy. In this paper, the empirical analysis of trade gravity model is used to explore the factors influencing the trade flow between China and Asia in the background of Silk Road economic zone. The results show that China’s GDP, foreign trade dependence, accession to the world trade organizations and Central Asia’s GDP, the population has a positive effect on trade. On this basis, it puts forward some suggestions to improve the trade flow between China and the five Central Asian countries and to promote the economic development of China and Central Asian countries.

Key words: the Silk Road Economic Belt, China, Five Central Asian Countries, Factors Influencing Trade, Trade Gravity Model

摘要： 随着“一带一路”愿景与行动的提出,中国与中亚国家双边贸易合作迅速发展,但也存在一些问题。本文运用贸易引力模型分析影响中国与中亚五国贸易流量的因素,结果表明:中国的GDP、对外贸易依存度和中亚五国的GDP、人口数量、对外贸易依存度、是否加入区域性经济组织等因素对中国与中亚五国贸易发展有影响,缩小与贸易伙伴国的人均GDP差距对贸易有促进作用。因此,本文提出中国应积极推动区域经济合作的建设;充分发挥中国西部地区区位优势,充分发掘潜在贸易能力;注重出口商品种类转变,提高产品竞争力,增强贸易互补性;利用贸易互补性,扩大商品进口等建议。

关键词: 丝绸之路经济带, 中国, 中亚五国, 贸易影响因素, 贸易引力模型