The Evaluation and Prediction of Kazakhstan Investment Environment Based on the Entropy Weight Method and Grey Correlation Analysis

doi:10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2016.05.007

Finance & Economics of Xinjiang ›› 2016, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (5): 58-66.DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2016.05.007

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The Evaluation and Prediction of Kazakhstan Investment Environment Based on the Entropy Weight Method and Grey Correlation Analysis

Liu Wencui, Zhang Shuai

Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China

Received:2016-07-20 Online:2020-12-01 Published:2016-10-25

基于熵权法和灰色关联法的哈萨克斯坦投资环境评价及预测

刘文翠¹, 张帅²

1.新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012;
2.新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

作者简介:刘文翠(1963-),女,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:国际金融;张帅(1989-),男,博士研究生,研究方向:国际金融。
基金资助:
新疆维吾尔自治区社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’背景下哈萨克斯坦国际资本流动风险预警研究”(2015BJY019);新疆财经大学研究生科研创新项目“中国对哈萨克斯坦资本流动风险预警研究”(XJUFE2016K027)

Abstract

Abstract: The article through building comprehensive index evaluation system of investment environment, using the entropy weight method and the grey correlation analysis to evaluate the investment environment of Kazakhstan in 2002-2014, studies show that: the overall investment environment level of the kazakhstan have constantly optimize trends, in addition to 2005 and 2008. Then adopting to the moving average method to forecast the kazakhstan investment environment over the next five years, according to the results: The investment environment of kazakhstan has a certain degree of decline in 2015 and 2016 , it begins to rebound after 2017, it needs to focus on the uncertainty of investment brought by the unstable economic and financial environment.

Key words: Kazakhstan, Investment Environment, Evaluation and Forecast, The Entropy Weight Method, Grey Correlation Analysis

摘要： 本文通过构建投资环境综合指标评价体系,采用熵权法及灰色关联法对哈萨克斯坦2002年—2014年的投资环境进行评价,研究得出:哈萨克斯坦投资环境总体水平除2005年、2008年出现短暂的下降外,总体处于不断优化的趋势;采用移动平均法对未来五年哈萨克斯坦投资环境质量进行预测,结果显示:哈萨克斯坦投资环境质量在2015年、2016年出现一定程度的下降,2017年以后开始回升,因此,需要重点关注经济环境及金融环境的不稳定带来的投资不确定性。

关键词: 哈萨克斯坦, 投资环境, 评价及预测, 熵权法, 灰色关联法

CLC Number:

F753

Liu Wencui, Zhang Shuai. The Evaluation and Prediction of Kazakhstan Investment Environment Based on the Entropy Weight Method and Grey Correlation Analysis[J]. Finance & Economics of Xinjiang, 2016, 0(5): 58-66.

刘文翠, 张帅. 基于熵权法和灰色关联法的哈萨克斯坦投资环境评价及预测[J]. 新疆财经, 2016, 0(5): 58-66.

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The Evaluation and Prediction of Kazakhstan Investment Environment Based on the Entropy Weight Method and Grey Correlation Analysis

基于熵权法和灰色关联法的哈萨克斯坦投资环境评价及预测

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The Evaluation and Prediction of Kazakhstan Investment Environment Based on the Entropy Weight Method and Grey Correlation Analysis

基于熵权法和灰色关联法的哈萨克斯坦投资环境评价及预测

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