Abstract:

Digital trade, with its multiple significant advantages such as breaking through geographical limitations and reducing transaction costs, is becoming a key force driving global trade growth and leading the world economic recovery. This paper selects the data of digital trade of major countries worldwide from 2014 to 2023, and uses complex network analysis methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the global digital trade network. It also uses QAP technical methods to analyze the influencing factors of the evolution of the trade network. The research finds that: the scale of the global digital trade network continues to expand, and the network connections are constantly strengthening; the trade networks of sub-sectors show significant heterogeneity in stable development; there is an unbalanced situation and polarization phenomenon in the evolution of the global digital trade network, and it presents obvious core-periphery structure characteristics; the evolution of global digital trade communities has shifted from "geographical proximity dominance" to "institutional rule dominance"; the global digital trade network maintains a high level of stability under the joint action of time series similarity and node strength heterogeneity; the economic scale differences, economic integration levels, cultural distances, digital infrastructure differences, and geographical proximity of various countries are all important influencing factors in the evolution of the global digital trade network.

Key words: digital trade, complex network analysis, network evolution, QAP

摘要：

数字贸易能够突破地理限制、降低交易成本等，在诸多方面表现出独特优势，正成为推动全球贸易增长和引领世界经济复苏的关键力量。文章选取2014—2023年全球主要国家数字贸易相关数据，采用复杂网络分析方法，分析全球数字贸易网络的时空演化特征，并使用QAP方法分析贸易网络演化的影响因素。研究发现：全球数字贸易网络规模持续扩大，网络联系不断增强；细分行业贸易网络在稳定发展中呈现显著的异质性；全球数字贸易网络演化中存在不均衡态势和极化现象，并表现出明显的“核心-边缘”结构特征；全球数字贸易社团演化由“地理邻近主导”转向“制度规则主导”；全球数字贸易网络在时间序列相似性和节点强度异质性的共同作用下保持了较强的稳定性；经济规模差异、经济一体化水平、文化距离、数字基础设施差异、地理邻近性等都是全球数字贸易网络演化的重要影响因素。

关键词: 数字贸易, 复杂网络分析, 网络演化, QAP