Abstract:

Faced with the uncertainty of global trade environment, China's PV module trade has shown strong competitiveness in the global PV market. This paper employs social network analysis, the trade dependence index (HM index), and an extended gravity model to analyze the evolutionary pattern, driving factors, and trade potential of China's photovoltaic module trade based on data from 2001 to 2021. The research reveals that since 2001, China's photovoltaic module trade has undergone a three-stage evolutionary pattern of "explosive growth-fluctuating development-sustained growth", with significant potential for development. Economic strength, population size, geographical distance, installed photovoltaic capacity, the degree of environmental regulation have emerged as the main factors influencing China's photovoltaic module export trade. The trade potential of China's photovoltaic module exports exhibits dynamic convergence characteristics and shows heterogeneity towards trade partners with different income levels and regions. To achieve high-quality development, China's PV industry should deepen cooperation with the Belt and Road partner countries and emerging markets through technological innovation, supply chain resilience improvement, and international rule alignment.

Key words: China's PV module trade, evolutionary pattern, driving factors, trade potential, trade dependence

摘要：

中国光伏组件在全球光伏市场中表现出了较强的竞争力。文章综合运用社会网络分析方法、贸易依赖指数和扩展引力模型，基于2001—2021年光伏组件贸易数据，分析中国光伏组件贸易的演化格局、驱动因素与贸易潜力。研究表明：中国光伏组件贸易呈“爆发式增长—波动式发展—持续性增长”三阶段演化格局，发展潜力巨大，而经济实力、人口规模、地理距离、光伏装机容量、环境规制程度是影响中国光伏组件出口贸易的主要因素；同时，中国光伏组件出口贸易潜力存在动态收敛特征，对不同收入水平以及不同地理区域的贸易伙伴其贸易潜力存在一定的异质性。今后，中国光伏企业可进一步强化技术创新，提升产业链韧性，主动对接国际规则，并持续深化与“一带一路”共建国家及新兴市场的合作，推动产业高质量发展。

关键词: 中国光伏组件贸易, 演化格局, 驱动因素, 贸易潜力, 贸易依赖