新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2021,Issue (5): 26-37.doi: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2021.05.003

• 管理纵横 • 上一篇    下一篇

个人特征、城市特征与流动人口户籍迁移意愿——基于分层广义线性模型

陈小昆, 曹阳阳   

  1. 新疆财经大学 统计与数据科学学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
  • 收稿日期:2020-12-01 出版日期:2021-10-25 发布日期:2021-10-25
  • 作者简介:陈小昆（1963—）,女,教授,研究方向为社会统计;曹阳阳（1997—）,女,硕士研究生,研究方向为社会统计。
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金地区项目“新疆民族间文化认同水平测度、维度分解及机制构建”（71563048）

Personal Characteristics, Urban Characteristics and Household Registration Migration Intention of Floating Population — Based on Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model

Chen Xiaokun, Cao Yangyang   

  1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,Xinjiang
  • Received:2020-12-01 Online:2021-10-25 Published:2021-10-25

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摘要： 在我国人口老龄化、城市间开展人才抢夺战背景下,深入了解人口户籍迁移意愿的影响因素对城市社会经济发展和社会治理极为重要。本文借助2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据及反映31个省会城市及直辖市的公共服务水平数据,运用分层广义线性模型,从个人和城市两个层面探究流动人口户籍迁移意愿的影响因素。研究表明：从个人层面来说,流动人口的个体特征、经济特征、社会特征、心理特征对户籍迁移意愿起到显著的直接影响;从城市层面来说,城市特征中的社会保障、环境设施、医疗卫生对流动人口户籍迁移意愿也产生直接影响,其中医疗卫生对户籍迁移意愿的影响是反向的。与此同时,城市特征中的社会保障、环境设施、医疗卫生、基础教育、公共就业都通过影响个人特征对户籍迁移意愿起到了间接作用,具体表现为“5个正向促进,2个反向弱化”。

关键词: 户籍迁移意愿, 流动人口迁移, 个人特征, 城市特征, 公共服务水平, 农民“市民化”

Abstract: Under the background of China's aging population and competition for talents between cities, it is very important for any city to understand the influencing factors of household registration migration intention. Based on the data of the national floating population dynamic monitoring survey in 2017 and the public service level data of 31 provincial capitals and municipalities directly under the central government in China, this paper uses the hierarchical generalized linear model to explore the influencing factors of urban household registration migration of floating population from both individual and urban levels. The results show that the floating population's individual, economic, social and psychological characteristics have a significant direct impact on the urban household registration migration intention; at the urban level, social security, environmental facilities, medical and health care in urban characteristics also have a direct impact on the intention of floating population to migrate, among which the medical and health care has a reverse effect on the migration intention. At the same time, social security, environmental facilities, medical and health care, basic education and public employment in urban characteristics all play an indirect role in household registration migration intention through influencing individual characteristics.

Key words: Household Registration Migration Intention, Migration of Floating Population, Individual Characteristics, Urban Characteristics, Public Service Level, "Citizenization" of Farmers

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