新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2025, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 5-14.DOI: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2025.04.001

• 高质量发展理论与实践 •    下一篇

对外开放、金融稳定与经济高质量发展

刘钰, 何剑, 祝林   

  1. 新疆财经大学，新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-07 出版日期:2025-08-25 发布日期:2025-08-26
  • 作者简介:刘钰（1991—），女，经济学博士，新疆财经大学财政税务学院讲师，研究方向为金融理论与政策。
    何剑（1973—），男，管理学博士，新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院教授，研究方向为经济统计、金融计量。
    祝林（1996—），男，经济学博士，新疆财经大学统计与数据科学学院讲师，研究方向为金融统计。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于税收数据的高质量发展统计监测与评估研究”(24&ZD064);国家自然科学基金项目“双支柱框架下稳定金融的政策协同效应研究”(7216030084);新疆维吾尔自治区高校基本科研业务费科研项目“财税金融支持新疆棉花和纺织服装产业集群高质量发展研究”(XJEDU2025J108);新疆财经大学校级科研基金项目“财税金融政策协同创新支持新疆自贸试验区高质量发展研究”(2024XYB001)

Opening Up to the Outside World, Financial Stability and High-quality Economic Development

LIU Yu, HE Jian, ZHU Lin   

  1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi 830012, China
  • Received:2024-11-07 Online:2025-08-25 Published:2025-08-26

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摘要：

开放发展和经济安全是新时期须统筹好的重要关系。文章运用SV-TVP-SVAR模型动态识别对外开放、金融稳定与经济高质量发展三者之间的时变和时点关系，并全面刻画不同开放方式下的经济金融效应。研究表明：不同开放方式对经济高质量发展和金融稳定的影响具有异质性。贸易开放能够在短期和中期显著促进经济高质量发展；投资开放在短期对经济高质量发展的影响效应呈现正负交替特征，中期则表现为正效应；两种开放方式的长期效应机制均不明确。贸易开放和投资开放对金融稳定的影响亦具有显著差异，金融稳定在对外开放传导机制中的中介作用未得到有效发挥。今后应着力提升对外开放水平和质量，统筹好高质量发展和高水平安全的关系，助力我国经济金融行稳致远。

关键词: 对外开放, 金融稳定, 经济高质量发展, 贸易开放, 投资开放

Abstract:

Opening-up and economic security are important relationships that must be well balanced in the new era. This paper uses the SV-TVP-SVAR model to dynamically identify the time-varying and temporal impacts among opening up to the outside world, financial stability, and high-quality economic development, and details the economic and financial effects of different opening modes. The research shows that different forms of openness have heterogeneous impacts on high-quality economic development and financial stability. Trade openness can significantly promote high-quality economic development in the short and medium term, while investment openness has a positive and negative alternating effect on high-quality economic development in the short term, and a certain positive effect in the medium term. The long-term effect mechanisms of both openness modes are unclear. There are significant differences in the impact of trade openness and investment openness on financial stability, and the role of financial stability in the transmission channels of opening up to the outside world has not been effectively played. Therefore, efforts should be made to improve the level and quality of opening up to the outside world, coordinate high-quality development and high-level security to help China’s economy and finance to achieve stability and long-term development.

Key words: opening up to the outside world, financial stability, high-quality economic development, trade openness, investment openness

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