新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2020,Issue (3): 73-80.doi: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2020.03.007

• 丝路研究 • 上一篇    

道路联通水平对双边贸易的影响研究——以中国与"丝绸之路经济带"沿线国家为例

王霞, 刘甜   

  1. 新疆财经大学 国际经贸学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-05 出版日期:2020-06-25 发布日期:2020-10-23
  • 作者简介:王霞(1975- -),女 ,教授,经济学博士,研究方向为区域经济与新疆外经贸;刘甜(1995- ) ,女,硕士研究生，研究方向为国际贸易与投资。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金西部项目“推动新疆边境地区深度融人‘一-带一路’建设研究"( 18XMZ055);新疆维吾尔自治区普通高校人文社会科学重点研究基地中国(新疆)与中亚区域经济合作研究中心招标课题重点项目“新时期新疆陆路口岸城镇化发展模式创新研究" (0501 16B02)

A Study of the Influence of Road Connectivity Level on Bilateral Trade—Take China and the Countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt"As an Example

Wang Xia, Liu Tian   

  1. Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics,Urumqi 830012,China
  • Received:2019-11-05 Online:2020-06-25 Published:2020-10-23

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摘要： 作为"一带一路"倡议的核心内容,设施联通与贸易畅通的建设尤为重要,其中道路联通是设施联通的基础。本文通过建立测评指标体系,采用因子分析法衡量“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家道路联通水平,在此基础上以印度、俄罗斯联邦、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦为例,基于VAR模型分析道路联通水平对双边贸易的影响,研究发现：印度、哈萨克斯坦、巴基斯坦的道路联通水平对双边贸易有较大的正向促进作用,而俄罗斯联邦的道路联通水平并未显示出正外部效应。随着“一带一路”倡议的加速推进,可通过加强交通基础设施技术合作及人才合作、推进交通基础设施智能化发展等途径提高“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家的道路联通水平,扩大中国与其双边贸易规模。

关键词: "一带一路"倡议, 丝路经济, 丝绸之路经济带, 道路联通, 双边贸易, VAR模型

Abstract: As the core content of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the construction of facility and trade connectivity is particularly important. Road connectivity is the foundation of facility connectivity. By using factor analysis, this paper establishes an evaluation index system to measure the level of road connectivity of countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt". On this basis, taking India, the Russian Federation, Kazakhstan, and Pakistan as examples, this paper analyzes the level of road connectivity based on the VAR model. The influence of bilateral trade shows that the level of road connectivity in India, Kazakhstan and Pakistan has a greater positive effect on bilateral trade, while the level of road connectivity in the Russian Federation does not show a positive external effect. With the accelerated advancement of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the level of road connectivity in countries along the "Silk Road Economic Belt" can be improved by strengthening transportation infrastructure technology cooperation and talents cooperation, and promoting the intelligent development of transportation infrastructure. And then expanding the scale of bilateral trade.

Key words: the "Belt and Road" Initiative, Silk Road Economy, Silk Road Economic Belt, Road Connectivity, Bilateral Trade, VAR Model

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