Abstract: Using the provincial panel data from 1998 to 2011,the paper employs the panel threshold model to study the effect of the marketization of insurance development in China.Main conclusions are as follows:the marketization process of the development of life insurance is the threshold effect,and with the marketization process,present the positive correlation inverted u-shaped,impact on the development of life insurance first increases,then decreases.Combined with threshold method,it finds the provinces marketization have evolved in response to impact on the development of life insurance,marketization level of life driving force in reducing high area.Therefore,the future direction of developing the life insurance will be adjusting the structure of life insurance,meeting the demand of consumer combining with the regional innovation risk structure,making rate pricing accurate with the help of big data technology.

Key words: Marketization, Life Insurance Development, Threshold Effect

摘要： 本文利用1998年—2011年省际面板数据,使用面板门限模型研究我国市场化进程对寿险发展的影响。研究得出:市场化进程对寿险发展存在门限效应,且随着市场化进程的推进,呈现出倒U型的正相关关系,即对寿险发展的影响先增加、后减小。同时,结合门限值发现,各省的市场化进程对寿险发展的影响不断演化,即市场化水平较高的区域对寿险的推动力在降低。因此,调整寿险业结构、结合区域风险结构创新符合消费者需求的险种、借助大数据技术精确费率定价是寿险业发展的方向。

关键词: 市场化, 寿险发展, 门限效应