Abstract:

The upgrading of the service sector structure not only provides an internal driving force for enhancing total factor productivity, but also offers effective support for fostering new-quality productive forces. Based on the analytical framework of new structural economics, this study employs a fixed-effects model and a threshold effect model to examine the nonlinear relationships among human capital structure, service sector structure, and total factor productivity in services across different levels of economic development. The findings indicate that the upgrading of the service sector structure depends on a well-matched human capital structure; when human capital structure aligns with the service sector structure, its advancement effectively promotes further structural upgrading. Moreover, when human capital structure meets the developmental demands of the service sector and the service sector evolves based on comparative advantages in factor endowments, the upgrading of human capital structure can optimize the allocation of internal factors within the service sector and significantly enhance total factor productivity. Going forward, sustained efforts should be made to enhance human capital cultivation and improve its allocative efficiency, accelerate the optimization and internal integration of the service sector, resolve structural imbalances in resource endowments, and leverage regional coordinated development as a underpinning to drive an overall leap in the sector's total factor productivity.

Key words: human capital structure, service structure, factor endowment structure, total factor productivity

摘要：

服务业结构升级不仅为全要素生产率提升提供了内在动力，还为培育新质生产力提供了有效支撑。文章基于新结构经济学分析框架，采用固定效应模型和门槛效应模型，检验不同经济发展水平下人力资本结构、服务业结构与服务业全要素生产率之间的非线性关系。研究表明：服务业结构升级依赖与之相适配的人力资本结构，当人力资本结构与服务业结构相适配时，人力资本结构高级化能够有效助推服务业结构升级；同时，当人力资本结构适配服务业发展需求，且服务业结构依托要素禀赋比较优势演进时，人力资本结构高级化能够优化服务业内部要素配置，显著提升服务业全要素生产率。今后，应持续强化人力资本培育、提高人力资本配置效率，加快服务业结构优化和内部融合，破解要素禀赋结构失衡，以区域协调发展为支撑，推动服务业全要素生产率整体跃升。

关键词: 人力资本结构, 服务业结构, 要素禀赋结构, 全要素生产率