新疆财经

新疆财经 ›› 2019,Issue (6): 70-78.doi: 10.16716/j.cnki.65-1030/f.2019.06.007

• 丝路研究 • 上一篇    

“一带一路”倡议对中国西部沿线省级区域经济增长的影响——基于PSM-DID方法研究

段秀芳, 寇明龙   

  1. 新疆财经大学 国际经贸学院,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830012
  • 收稿日期:2019-11-22 出版日期:2019-12-25 发布日期:2020-10-29
  • 作者简介:段秀芳(1963—),女,教授,博士生导师,研究方向:中国新疆与中亚俄罗斯区域经济合作、贸易与投资;寇明龙(1989—),男,硕士研究生,研究方向:国际贸易理论与政策。
  • 基金资助:
    国家社会科学基金一般项目“丝绸之路经济带下的中国与中亚国家投资便利化问题研究”(15EJY027);商务部委托重点项目“丝绸之路经济带与欧亚经济联盟对接合作的机遇挑战与对策建议”

The Influence of "the Belt and Road Initiative" on Economic Growth in Western China—— Based on PSM-DID Method

Duan Xiufang, Kou Minglong   

  1. Xinjiang University of Finance & Economics, Urumqi 830012, China
  • Received:2019-11-22 Online:2019-12-25 Published:2020-10-29

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摘要： 本文基于1994年—2017年省级面板数据,运用倾向得分匹配双重差分法PSM-DID模型验证“一带一路”倡议对西部沿线省市的经济增长效应,并进一步分析西部沿线省市经济发展的主要动力。实证研究发现:“一带一路”倡议显著促进了西部沿线省市的GDP增长,工业化水平的提升、产业结构的优化是促进西部沿线省市GDP增长的主要推动力。西部沿线省市应走新型工业化发展道路,加快第三产业发展并积极吸引外资,以推动各省市的经济增长。

关键词: “一带一路”, 西部沿线省市, 工业化水平, 产业结构, 西部地区经济增长, 区域经济协调发展, PSM-DID方法

Abstract: Based on the provincial panel data from 1994 to 2017, using difference in PSM-DID method, this paper analyzes the economic growth effects in western China under "the Belt and Road"initiative.The empirical analysis has found that "the Belt and Road" Initiative promotes the growth of GDP in western China significantly. Furthermore, by analyzing the transmission mechanism, this paper shows that the promotion of industrialization level and the optimization of industrial structure are the main driving forces to promote the GDP of the western regions along the Belt and Road. Therefore, it is of great necessity for western China to take the new industrialization road, accelerate the development of the tertiary industry and attract foreign cap-ital to promote the economic growth in different cities and provinces.

Key words: "The Belt and Road Initiative", Western Cities along the Belt and Road, Industrialization, Industry Structure, Economic Growth in the Western Region, Coordinated Development of Regional Economies, PSM-DID Method

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